Polls and Predicting Election Results

First of all - Stop telling me who seems to be ahead and start telling me what these candidates are going if they get elected. And then start telling me who is telling me the truth. And then start telling me who is playing dirty tricks on each other. Those are the ones who will play dirty tricks on the citizens.

That being said:
A Statistic Is beautiful thing. It is meaningful number. That is what a statistic is. It flows from other numbers. As the Mississippi river gets its power from countless streams and tributaries, the statistic gets its power from the numbers that precede it.

The New Hampshire primary results not following the polls is not the fault of the statistics.
A lot of very well educated, well paid people in and around the media industry make a lot of money pretending to predict the future.
Ask any weather man / meteorologist. We human beings cannot predict the future.
Oh sure, the History Channel re-runs the genius of Nostradamus over and over. The same is true for the National Enquirer. There is a psychic disconnect somewhere when a person reads that the end of time is imminent while they wait to pay for the food that they are buying for the future.
We all want to know what is going to happen. But the only accurate prediction is that, at least for this year, we will not be predicting the future.
Dewey did not defeat Truman for the same reason that Obama did not beat Clinton.
He did not get enough votes.
The sure thing (but wrong) prediction was reported for the exactly the same reasons.
Highly paid, well educated media people and pollsters need to move their lips and vibrate their vocal chords to attempt to dazzle us with their brilliance. That is their job. If they don't do this people will not acknowledge them. There are even people like Rush Limbaugh, who has perfected his paradigm and dazzles his audience with his bull(crap).
The next 11 months are going to be full of pundits and experts trampling each other to get out that next prediction (that everyone will forget next week).
So now I will make my own predictions which are firmly based on past events.

• With the exception of Ron Paul, the chances of someone shooting or bombing a republican candidate are very small. I say this because the types of organizations or people who would actually resort to shooting someone don't ever seem to be upset with republicans.
• The shooting or bombing of whichever democratic candidate seems to be leading, or successfully challenging the leader, will change the entire dynamic of the election. The two Kennedy brothers come to mind.
  
• Shooting or bombing may be held as a last resort because such tactics as Willi Horten, the black baby whisper campaign and swift boating are still being honed to cut deeper and cleaner into respectable reputations. These tactics will be used, and they will not be properly investigated and prosecuted as a form of election fraud.
  
• The chances of some foreign entity causing a destructive event in this country increases as the country turns away from Mid-East conflicts. I say this because the greatest ally Osama ben-Laden has had since September 11th, 2001 has been George Bush and his administration. They have been able to unfalteringly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory at every turn. It is almost as if they planned to fail all along so that the enemy would always be before us. Ben-Laden gives Bush a reason to exist. And Bush gives ben-Laden a reason to exist. Those two are really handcuffed together. I hate to say it but I now consider the chances of "the terrorists following us home" is actually real. Thankfully, it is not real for the reasons we have been given. I believe that the terrorists will follow us home for the same reason that a two year old will follow its mother from room to room during a tantrum. If we leave the middle east, they will have no one paying attention to them. THAT is what threatens their existence. It is in the interest of terrorists to prevent peace, withdrawal, disconnection or an automobile engine that gets 100 miles to the gallon. So I urge Ron Paul and all the Democrats to exit rallies in a bomb proof manner.
  

But while human beings cannot tell the future, we can keep score.
Make your self a score sheet
A positive and a negative column for every candidate.
Then they run a positive ad they get a plus
When they run a negative ad they get a minus and the other guy gets a plus
When the party or supporting organizations (like moveon.org or club for growth) run a positive ad, every candidate in that party gets a plus
When the party or supporting organizations run a negative ad, everyone in that party gets a minus and the other guys get plusses.
If candidates have solutions to problems they get a plus
If they just talk about problems they get a minus